All indications are that Narendra Modi and the BJP have won the 2014 elections for the Lok Sabha. Hardly anything unusual is expected in todays round. In fact the BJP twitterati is so confident that it seems to be taking a day off (no hashtags are being trended by them today) – well deserved rest after a long period of hard work.
What are my reasons for predicting this win – Is it based on astrology or an alignment of the stars ?
Not really ! What people may not be aware of is that exit polls are being continuously held and have been held for each polling day – and these can be far more precise than any predictive poll as they query the voters coming out of the polling booths.
Exit Polls Have Surely Been Leaked
They say put your money where your mouth is – and in this case the stock market has been very clear. The market participants are not blind – the large financial institutions have their own analysts and in-roads into the various political parties and the agencies that perform exit polls. Without doubt the exit polls have been leaked. The Indian market capitalization is in excess of a trillion dollars, a ten percent increase means a hundred billion dollars – such increases in market capitalization are not based on mere hunches. We are talking big bucks and I am sure a small portion would gave gone to obtain the information directly (and illegally) from the polling agencies.
Sensex surges 338.67 points to hit another record-high of 23,332.90; Nifty scales new peak of 6,952.40 in opening trade
— TIMES NOW (@timesnow) May 12, 2014
There is an increase of 8-10% in voting percentages – Many studies have shown an increase in voting patterns and certainly such substantial increases imply change – they imply a strong anti-incumbency. Now put yourself in the shoes of the average voter – “I dont want to vote for Congress” – who will I vote for ? There are no options other than Narendra Modi ! The anti-incumbency votes are surely going to Narendra Modi – there can be little doubt. The Aam Aadmi Party (I support their anti-corruption movement) while a good competitor – it is clearly not there yet on the national level other than in Delhi NCR and perhaps Punjab (They need to wait for 2019).
Modi’s Interview With Arnab Was Basically A “First Day In Office” Speech
Arnab could have slammed Narendra Modi – instead he chose to give him ample chances to speak and explain his side of the story. Any why question him on foreign policy and FDI issues – these questions are meant for a future Prime Minister. These questions are meant for the next government. Arnab would have had full access to his own firms exit polls – the Times of India group certainly runs the largest of these exit polls and Arnab would certainly know. This was a “policy speech” interview given by Narendra Modi with Arnab having the full knowledge of Modi’s victory.
Modi has clearly won !! Happy Birthday Narendra Ji
By Indrajit Chatterjee