Its 2 – 2 after 4 matches in the ongoing World Chess Championship where both, the challenger Vishy Anand and the defender, Magnus Carlsen, has won one game each and settled for draws in two. While Indians are wishing for Vishy and hoping that he wins against the Mozart of Chess, Magnus Carlsen, the current favorite clearly has more chances to defend his title if the draws continue to dominate in the remaining 8 matches.
Anand This Year
After winning the Candidates Tournament in March this year, Vishwanath Anand, the World No. 6 got a ticket to challenge the current World No. 1. The win not only surprised everybody around the World, but also Anand himself. At 44, with unburdened weight of expectation and little to lose, Anand is all game against the current Champ, Carlsen. Experts believe if he continues to play without any pressure and put the same pressure on Carlsen which he had last year in Chennai, he might be able to regain his throne.
Carlsen This Year
There has been a dip in Carlsen’s form this year and everyone from the experts to the commentators have been bashing Carlsen (who had five defeats), proving that even the Harry Potter of Chess is not immune to failure and fatigue. Moreover, since this year Carlsen was not able to crush his opponents, and was dominated by 22 year old Fabiano Caruana, everybody speculated/speculates that Carlsen will have his self doubts in match against Anand.
Even Anand said that the chess world is learning from Carauna these days.
While, others might see it as a negative point, I wonder, if this reason aggravates Carlsen and makes him go strong against Anand. Carlsen has confirmed that he has a psychological edge over Anand. No wonder, Carlsen won the first game against Anand.
More The Draws, Better are the Chances of Carlsen to defend his crown
The current FIDE ELO rating of Carlsen is 2863 while that of Anand is 2792. With 71 points (~100) more than Anand, the chances of Carlsen winning the tournament shoots up by 64%. (According to the Elo Rating System). So, the rating system favors Carlsen which means he should try to draw the matches more or simply restrain Anand from winning win.
“Draws” can give Carlsen more advantage than the wins. However, Carlsen wouldn’t settle for draw, he will mainly try to win. In that case, he has to see that Anand doesn’t win, no matter what type of game he tries to play.
Carslen started as favorite with 1/4 and after 4 games he is still favorite with 3/10. However Anand, who was earlier at 11/4 is now 9/4 after the Game 4. If five time world champion Anand has to win, he has to try to take an advantage, specially in the games, he gets white. The reason? well, Carlsen, is known for getting out from difficult positions, even if he plays with black. Not once, but there has been several games where he could easily get out. No wonder, the incumbent World Champion is known for his endgame skills.
Carlsen post the last game, has mentioned that the last two games he played was not good enough. One, which he lost and other, which was a draw. Anand’s Sicilian defence surprised Carslen, but a day off means, it gives enough time for Team Carlsen to sit and plan their moves, the once that can really give huge blows to the challenger.
Counting various factors including rating, game strategy, psychological advantage, endgame skills as mentioned above, Magnus Carslen is the best bet amongst the two.
Watch All the Four Games That Were Played Between Carlsen and Anand in The Ongoing World Chess Championship